Glad Sunday. In a 2023 column, I asked why Canada was not an financial big. The musing stirred up over 600 feedback.
The mountainous North American nation is the topic of this week’s e-newsletter. The near-term outlook for the Canadian economic system isn’t nice. The US’s proposed 25 per cent tariffs on items from Canada might decrease its GDP development by round 4 proportion factors over two years (assuming they arrive into pressure and Canada retaliates), in accordance with a Financial institution of Canada estimate.
However on this version I take a decades-long view, arguing that with an bold coverage agenda, the G7 nation can change into a significant financial pressure.
First, a phrase on its potential.
Canada is the second-largest nation by land mass, with the world’s longest shoreline. It’s bookended by the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, making it ideally located for world commerce.
Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Analysis, additionally reckons Canada might be higher off in a hotter world. “World warming might improve agricultural yields, open up massive swaths of the nation to mineral exploration, and permit for brand new commerce routes by means of the Arctic,” he stated.
The nation is power unbiased, with the world’s largest deposits of high-grade uranium and the third-largest confirmed oil reserves. It is usually the fifth-largest producer of pure fuel.
Canada boasts an enormous provide of different commodities too, together with the most important potash reserves (used to make fertiliser), over one-third of the world’s licensed forests and a fifth of the planet’s floor freshwater. Plus, it has an abundance of cobalt, graphite, lithium and different uncommon earth parts, that are utilized in renewable applied sciences.
“Canada completely has potential to be a worldwide superpower,” added Papic. However the nation has lacked the visionary management and coverage framework to capitalise on its benefits.
US President Donald Trump’s tariff risk has, nevertheless, shifted the Overton window. There may be now a rising political consensus to unlock Canada’s financial potential and scale back its dependence on exports to its southern neighbour. That activity will fall to both Prime Minister Mark Carney or opposition chief Pierre Poilievre following an election this yr.
Canada’s GDP has lengthy trailed its G7 friends, rating sixteenth globally in buying energy parity phrases. A rustic with its geography might clearly generate increased output. To take action, the Canadian economic system must change into extra environment friendly, increase funding and appeal to extra high-skilled employees. Right here’s how.
The nation’s mountainous terrain impedes its dynamism. However Canada locations vital bureaucratic burdens on the motion of individuals and items too. This contains restrictions on the sale of sure items throughout provincial borders, and variations in licences and technical requirements that hinder scaling, competitors and environment friendly useful resource allocation throughout the nation.
For measure, Canadian provinces export extra to America than they do amongst themselves. A 2022 research by the Macdonald-Laurier Institute discovered that Canada’s economic system might develop by 4.4 to 7.9 per cent in the long run — as much as $200bn a yr — if it eradicated inner commerce limitations through mutual recognition insurance policies. Comparable reforms in Australia within the Nineteen Nineties helped to spice up productiveness there.
Confronted with the specter of US tariffs, a provincewide consensus is rising. An Angus Reid survey discovered 95 per cent of Canadians now help the removing of inner commerce limitations.
Simplifying its advanced tax system, expediting planning processes, easing crimson tape for overseas direct funding and growing financial partnership mechanisms for indigenous populations, in tandem with inner commerce reforms, would assist companies throughout the economic provide chain faucet into the nation’s huge power and mineral sources.
Canada can play a major position in assembly the worldwide demand for pure fuel, uranium (utilized in nuclear reactors) and rare-earth minerals, particularly as renewables and defence sectors are booming. The nation’s pure sources, in addition to its potential in increased value-add manufacturing and refinement actions, are additionally helpful belongings as nations think about diversifying their provide chains from China, Russia — and even the US.
Growing pure useful resource clusters across the nation would help the agglomeration of associated financial actions, together with in superior manufacturing, finance, and analysis and improvement. This implies boosting connectivity to help buying and selling shops to Asia and Europe is vital. Proper now, round three-quarters of Canadian items exports go to America. (Any future, friendlier US administration would then be a bonus.)
“Canada should proceed to construct up its commerce and power infrastructure coast to coast, together with ports, roads, railways and pipelines”, says Varun Srivatsan, director of coverage on the Royal Financial institution of Canada. The nation ranks 103rd out of 113 for port turnaround instances, in accordance with the World Bank.
Subsequent, individuals. With a inhabitants of simply 40mn, Canada is likely one of the world’s least densely populated nations. However remarkably, it additionally has one of many developed world’s worst housing shortages. Common home costs have tripled up to now 20 years, with excessive mortgage debt straining client spending.
That is each a requirement and provide downside. Immigration jumped below former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, serving to to broaden the nation’s sparse labour market. But it surely additionally strained public infrastructure, which didn’t develop on the similar tempo.
Tighter immigration controls will present short-term reprieve. However with an ageing inhabitants and a comparatively small labour pressure, Canada must proceed to draw expertise over the long run. (Synthetic intelligence and robotics — which each require funding — can solely go up to now.)
This shouldn’t be too troublesome. Canada outperforms the common on the OECD Higher Life Index in training, well being and life satisfaction. Calgary, Vancouver and Toronto are ranked among the many greatest cities to reside in. And Canada is the world’s most interesting vacation spot for the college educated, in accordance with the Economist, which estimates about 17mn graduates would transfer there if they might.
Constructing extra houses will guarantee it stays engaging and inexpensive for each home and worldwide employees. (Canada doesn’t utilise immigrants’ expertise as effectively because it might both. A harmonised, nationwide recognition of overseas credentials would assist, notes the OECD.)
This isn’t an exhaustive listing of insurance policies. However they should be among the many long-term priorities for any Canadian administration in search of to capitalise on the nation’s monumental, latent potential.
Does Canada have the cash? It has the G7’s lowest web debt and deficit ranges as a proportion of GDP. So growth-enhancing funding might be financed partially by borrowing. However gross debt is excessive.
Canada additionally has huge swimming pools of capital and experience in its world-class pension funds — the “Maple Eight” (its largest pension pots) oversee $1.6tn in belongings. They may again profitable capital investments within the nation. Pure useful resource revenues might be channelled right into a sovereign wealth fund as in Norway with provincial buy-in. And as long as infrastructure and fewer crimson tape allow it, FDI could be plentiful.
The Canadian economic system is at a crossroads. The belligerence of its primary buying and selling associate is driving consensus round boosting the nationwide economic system. The world wants what Canada has in abundance. The nation has a novel likelihood to achieve its potential. If it needs to.
Rebuttals? Ideas? Message me at freelunch@ft.com or on X @tejparikh90.
Meals for thought
Right here’s one other potential clarification for Britain’s productiveness puzzle. Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, ran an interesting analysis that linked falling electrical energy provide to weak productiveness development within the UK. Might it’s that Britain has merely lacked the power to develop sooner?
