WASHINGTON – Iran and America are poised for conflict. The Trump administration has surrounded the Center Japanese nation with a staggering amount of army personnel and gear, and lots of officers and consultants now see an American strike inside weeks as inevitable, more likely to spur a pointy Iranian response, then a spiraling and ugly battle. One of the simplest ways to avert that end result is profitable diplomacy, however its prospects are extraordinarily slim. Trapped in Iran’s most infamous jail is an ailing Iranian American journalist whose scenario helps clarify why: Reza Valizadeh.
Imprisoned by Iranian authorities over his ties to the U.S. and work as a reporter, Valizadeh was deemed “wrongfully detained” by the State Division in Might 2025. That unlocked “particular consideration” and authorities sources to assist free him, a GOP congressional aide advised HuffPost. The standing bolstered Valizadeh’s relevance to President Donald Trump’s personal “dedication to leaving no American behind” and to Washington’s general declare of combating Iranian repression.
“We have now lots of religion within the negotiators [with Iran] and the president. This has been a top-of-mind subject for him and for the administration: They don’t waver on bringing individuals house,” the Republican aide mentioned, saying Trump had to date freed roughly 150 People held overseas. Requested for touch upon Valizadeh, the State Division despatched HuffPost an announcement from a U.S. official demanding his launch and that of “all others unjustly detained in Iran,” including: “The Iranian regime has a protracted and shameful historical past of unjustly detaining U.S. nationals.”
However right now, the likeliest situations for Valizadeh’s launch seem extraordinarily unbelievable. That’s partially due to the Trump administration’s decisions because it has each negotiated with Tehran and subjected it to army and economic strain — together with direct American assaults final summer time — in pursuit of limits on Iran’s nuclear program, missile capabilities and regional affect. In the meantime, Iran’s personal calculations complicate the prospect too.
Illustration: HuffPost; Photograph: the Valizadeh household
Beforehand, agreements between U.S. and Iranian officers to change prisoners like Valizadeh have helped Washington and Tehran scale back tensions.
Ryan Fayhee, Valizadeh’s legal professional within the U.S., mentioned he doesn’t imagine the 2 nations are actually contemplating such a swap. As a substitute, Fayhee sees Iran releasing Valizadeh and different U.S. residents “to reset their very own standing within the area and to permit for a higher concentrate on the problem or points the Iranians wish to have interaction the U.S. on.”
Iran’s different American detainees embody two septuagenarians, he mentioned, arguing such detentions damage the nation’s worldwide picture. (Not less than 4 Iranian-People are estimated to be in Iranian captivity.) And Fayhee famous Tehran doesn’t look like pushing Washington to launch any of its residents held in america.
“I don’t know precisely what the U.S. authorities technique is [but given] preliminary contacts, I’m feeling very optimistic that there’ll be a possibility to debate these issues, as a result of beforehand there weren’t communications,” Fayhee advised HuffPost.
A gesture of goodwill or PR bid by Iran is conceivable, however laborious to think about amid fixed threats and conflicting messages from Trump. The president on Friday mentioned he’s contemplating a restricted assault on Iran, the day after he mentioned he nonetheless believes a deal is feasible. Trump framed an assault as a negotiating tactic. But even an ostensibly modest strike would trigger Iran to “stroll away” from talks with Trump, a senior diplomat from the area advised HuffPost on Thursday.
Iranian leaders, who’re trying to reassert energy after brutally suppressing home protests final month, are reluctant to look weak relative to the U.S. or make large concessions, however the Trump administration continues to demand sweeping restrictions on Iran that might be perceived as a capitulation. Talks between envoys in Switzerland on Tuesday provided little proof of a compromise. On Thursday, the U.S. official advised HuffPost: “Progress was made, however there are nonetheless lots of particulars to debate. The Iranians mentioned they’d come again within the subsequent two weeks with detailed proposals to deal with a few of the open gaps in our positions.”
Some analysts imagine that given these gaps and the indicators Trump is leaning towards an assault, Iran’s management now sees outright combating as its finest step strategically, relatively than taking steps to de-escalate by, as an example, releasing American detainees.
“Tehran might calculate that the longer the conflict lasts and the upper the stakes turn out to be, the U.S. shall be extra more likely to search for a method to finish it. Negotiations then might yield a distinct — and extra fascinating — end result for Iran,” Vali Nasr, a Johns Hopkins College professor, wrote within the Monetary Instances on Thursday. “Many within the west will interpret this line of considering as a catastrophic miscalculation… However it will be a mistake in the event that they dismiss it.”
Iran’s assessments of its choices draw partly on its interpretation of U.S. strikes. As Trump’s negotiating group — dominated by particular envoy and fellow actual property developer Steve Witkoff and now together with the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner — has held discussions with Iranian counterparts, few indications have emerged that these talks prioritize American detainees.
“Shockingly, the administration has utterly dropped the case of American hostages in Iran. They haven’t introduced it up even as soon as,” mentioned Ali Vaez, an analyst on the Worldwide Disaster Group assume tank. “I hope that this shall be half and parcel of a deal, not as a follow-on to it.”
When HuffPost requested the regional official if Iran would possibly free jailed People to enhance the tone across the talks, the official mentioned it will be finest for the dialogue to focus narrowly on Iran’s nuclear program, within the vein of the final settlement between Iran, the U.S. and different world powers (which Trump weakened after which deserted regardless of Iranian compliance).
In Iran’s view, the U.S. is already in violation of a previous settlement over detainees, Vaez famous. In September 2023, the Biden administration agreed to let Iran faucet $6 billion in frozen oil income held outdoors the nation as a part of a prisoner change deal, just for Washington to freeze the cash once more after the Oct. 7, 2023, assaults on Israel by the Iranian-backed Palestinian militia Hamas, which led to the bloodbath of a whole bunch of civilians.
Iranian officers raised that cash in talks with the Trump administration final 12 months, a former U.S. official advised HuffPost, arguing their concern was not even the quantity however proof that the U.S. would observe by means of on its phrase. Trump made “an specific determination to not launch the funds,” the official mentioned.
Iran doesn’t seem to “acknowledge the political toxicity that exists for this administration” relating to the Biden-era settlement, the previous official continued, noting the freeze was broadly handled in Washington, together with by many Democrats, as “the de facto punishment for Oct. 7.” Any try and free the cash would doubtless draw sharp resistance from Congress and recent gambits to focus on Iran.
With the 2 sides “speaking previous one another,” the newest U.S.-Iran discussions “went poorly,” the previous official mentioned. Requested in regards to the administration’s avowals that it want to keep away from a conflict, the official recalled Trump’s negotiations with Tehran earlier than the Israeli offensive towards the nation final 12 months that the U.S. joined: “I believed we had been towards the June conflict till we weren’t.”
Held in a cell in Evin jail together with 17 others, in a ward the place 200 inmates share 4 bathrooms and with out entry to important prescription throat treatment or remedy for his dental and gastrointestinal points, Valizadeh is amongst those that can be most weak if a U.S.-Iran battle breaks out. HuffPost drew details about his case and situations from a report Fayhee ready for United Nations consultants.
Now 50, the jailed reporter was arrested in September 2024, after he traveled to Iran to go to his aged mother and father upon receiving assurances he wouldn’t be focused for his years of criticizing the Iranian authorities and dealing for Radio Farda, a Persian information outlet funded by the U.S. authorities. He was held in solitary confinement and interrogated, together with about his radio work, for greater than two months, earlier than being sentenced following temporary hearings in an Iranian court docket the place the decide additionally acted because the prosecutor. Valizadeh’s legal professional was not allowed to characterize him, the report says, and his attraction was rejected in January 2025.
Struggle has worsened Valizadeh’s 18-month imprisonment. Throughout the U.S.-Israeli bombing of Iran final summer time, the Israeli army hit the Evin jail in an apparent war crime, killing and injuring civilians. Valizadeh was close to one explosion. He and different screaming prisoners confronted one other blast, then had been shot at by guards and “hovered between life and demise,” Valizadeh’s brother told the Committee to Defend Journalists final 12 months.
The smoke severely worsened Valizadeh’s bronchial asthma and led to his being briefly transferred to a different jail identified for contaminated meals and higher isolation, according to his brother.
Detained People’ situations may very well be an element as Trump weighs a strike and a potential tit-for-tat battle with Iran, endangering tens of 1000’s of different People throughout the Center East.
“That’s a major variable on this in that the safety of Americans is without doubt one of the authorities’s most sacred priorities,” the GOP aide mentioned. “It’s a consideration transferring ahead, specifically relating to Evin jail. That’s entrance of thoughts not just for [Valizadeh’s] advocates but in addition the administration.”
However the Trump administration has additionally subjected a whole bunch of U.S. residents to violence and detentions and recommended some needs to be stripped of citizenship. And in coping with individuals linked to Iran, it has claimed to help their human rights, together with to dissent towards the Iranian authorities, whereas barring most Iranian nationals from touring to America and inflicting mass impoverishment by means of sanctions.
The U.S. official who emailed HuffPost wrote: “We remind U.S. nationals of the warning on travel.state.gov: ‘Don’t journey to Iran for any purpose.’ People there ought to depart.”
For Valizadeh, that isn’t an choice.
