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Chinese language funding in Europe rose for the primary time in seven years in 2024, pushed by a surge in electrical car and battery tasks in Hungary, at the same time as Chinese language companies more and more shunned the UK, Germany and France.
Whole Chinese language overseas direct funding within the EU and UK climbed 47 per cent to €10bn final yr, in keeping with knowledge from the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Research and consultancy Rhodium Group.
Whereas the rebound marked a break within the downward pattern, complete FDI was only a fifth of the 2016 peak and was closely concentrated amongst a small group of companies, together with battery makers CATL and Envision, tech group Tencent and carmaker Geely.
“The EU stays enticing for Chinese language funding,” mentioned Max Zenglein, chief economist at Merics. However he warned that Beijing may more and more deploy company funding as “a software for strategic affect”.
Going through mounting political scrutiny and commerce tensions, Chinese language corporations have pivoted from mergers and acquisitions to greenfield investments. CATL’s €7.5bn battery facility in Debrecen and BYD’s deliberate €5bn electrical car plant in Szeged — each in Hungary — are emblematic of the shift.
Hungary accounted for 31 per cent of all Chinese language funding in Europe in 2024, retaining its place as the highest vacation spot for a second consecutive yr. In distinction, the mixed share of the UK, Germany and France fell to only 20 per cent, down from a mean of 52 per cent over the earlier 5 years.
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, extensively seen as China’s closest supporter inside the EU, sees Chinese language capital as offering a significant pillar to the economic system amid weak home development.
China’s carmakers are below stress to develop overseas as they grapple with overcapacity and faltering demand at dwelling. The EU’s determination final October to impose tariffs of up to 45 per cent on Chinese language automobile imports has additional incentivised native manufacturing inside the bloc.
Nonetheless, the examine famous a pointy drop in new funding bulletins by Chinese language electric-vehicle producers — down 79 per cent final yr in contrast with 2022—2023 ranges. Battery-maker Svolt, as an illustration, deserted plans for 2 vegetation in Germany value €4.2bn, whereas a European Fee preliminary overseas subsidy investigation into BYD’s Hungary plant may additional dampen momentum, it mentioned.
The decline was partially offset by a modest uptick in M&A. Tencent acquired Polish online game developer Techland for €1.5bn, although such dealmaking exercise is predicted to stay subdued. The standard motivation for M&A — entry to Western expertise — has waned as China builds its personal R&D capabilities.
Chinese language funding in strategic sectors reminiscent of renewable power can also be drawing heightened scrutiny throughout Europe. But the authors of the examine noticed scope for a short-term easing in tensions, as some EU member states sought to keep away from simultaneous commerce conflicts with each Beijing and Washington, whereas China renewed a appeal offensive geared toward Brussels.
