Donald Trump’s tariff deadline looms

Hi there and welcome to the working week.

Anybody for taco? As all of you followers of the Unhedged publication will know, my colleague Rob Armstrong’s pleasant acronym for Trump At all times Chickens Out has induced fairly a stir in Washington and Wall Road. The July 9 deadline set by Donald Trump to introduce his reciprocal tariffs is nearly upon us. Will the US president blink?

Phrase is that White Home officers are looking for to strike narrower bilateral trade deals to keep away from the harshest tariffs threatened by Trump.

What we do know is that time has run out on a US-EU commerce deal being struck. The 2 sides are aiming for a much less detailed “settlement in precept”, in response to European Fee president Ursula von der Leyen. And it’s the same story elsewhere. South Korea’s President Lee Jae-myung has famous rather depressingly that “the 2 sides usually are not actually clear on what they need”.

Need some excellent news? You’ll be able to hold updated with the newest twists and turns with a click on of the mouse, on the FT Trump tariff tracker.

In Europe, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will host a two-day Ukraine restoration convention in Rome, greater than three years after Russia’s full scale invasion started. The hassle will presumably have the blessing of a brand new native resident: Pope Leo XIV.

Crossing the border from the EU to the UK will likely be France’s President Emmanuel Macron, arriving in London for a state go to, destined to concerned conversations about migrant crossings over the English Channel in addition to Anglo-French commerce relations.

Additionally in London, we attain a landmark second within the Put up Workplace Horizon IT scandal on Tuesday, because the inquiry investigating what turned the largest miscarriage of justice in British authorized historical past publishes quantity one in every of its ultimate report. This doc will deal with the human influence of the scandal and the compensation, which some are still waiting to be paid. The report’s publication will likely be adopted by remarks by inquiry chair Sir Wyn Williams, livestreamed on the inquiry’s YouTube channel.

Summer season within the northern hemisphere, to not point out the gradual return within the US after the July 4 vacation, means a reasonably skinny run of company and financial bulletins this week.

The US Federal Reserve will publish the minutes from its final rate-setting assembly on Wednesday, little doubt fuelling an onslaught of social media posts from Trump about the way forward for Fed chair Jay Powell.

The principle UK knowledge level this week would be the month-to-month GDP replace on Friday, which British chancellor Rachel Reeves will likely be watching as nervously as we’re all are concerning the climate report.

The central bankers will likely be busy on the speaker circuit over the approaching days. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon will even be giving a speech on the Irish overseas ministry in Dublin on Thursday.

Journey will likely be a theme of the market stories with Delta Air Traces, Heathrow, Norwegian Air and Jet2 revealing newest figures, giving a sign of how many people are getting away this 12 months and the well being of the sector.

Yet another factor . . . 

Speaking of which, I’m off for a household break to Cairo, a particular journey to mark the tip of serious exams for 2 of my three children in addition to a deal with for the opposite one, an archaeology scholar.

I’m trying ahead particularly to visiting the gargantuan new Grand Egyptian Museum, regardless of the show of the whole Tutankhamun assortment uncovered by Howard Carter having its opening postponed as a result of Center East battle. You’ll be able to learn the FT’s assessment of this surprise of the fashionable world here.

The Week Forward will likely be again with you subsequent Sunday because of my colleagues on the FT publication crew. And you’ll e mail me your ideas about upcoming occasions at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you’re studying this out of your inbox, simply hit reply. Have a terrific week.

Key financial and firm stories

Here’s a extra full listing of what to anticipate by way of firm stories and financial knowledge this week.

Monday

• Bakkavor basic assembly of shareholders to vote on the proposed acquisition of the corporate by Greencore. If authorized, the deal is predicted to finish in early 2026

• Deutsche Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel speaks on “The German financial system: navigating cyclical fluctuations and boosting long-term progress” on the Ragnar Nurkse lecture in Tallinn, Estonia

• EU: Could retail commerce figures

• Germany: Could manufacturing index

• Japan: Consumption Exercise Index

• UK: Halifax July Home Worth Index

• US: Convention Board employment index

• Outcomes: Ferrexpo Q2 manufacturing report, Galp Energia Q2 buying and selling replace, Shell Q2 quarterly replace

Tuesday

• Simply Eat Takeaway extraordinary basic assembly of shareholders to vote on the proposed acquisition of the corporate by Prosus. If authorized, the deal is predicted to finish earlier than the tip of the 12 months

• The Put up Workplace Horizon IT Inquiry publishes quantity one in every of its ultimate report.

• Australia: rate of interest determination

• Japan: June financial institution lending figures

• Outcomes: Begbies Traynor FY, Kinnevik HY, OMV Q2 buying and selling replace, Optima Well being FY, SIG buying and selling replace, Unite Group buying and selling replace and Q2 fund valuations, Victrex Q3 buying and selling replace

Wednesday

• Reserve Financial institution of Australia deputy governor Andrew Hauser provides a speech on

  “What Has Australian Macroeconomic Thought Achieved within the Previous Century — and The place Can it Contribute within the Subsequent?” on the Australian Convention of Economists in Sydney

• Philip Lane, govt board member of the European Central Financial institution, will ship a speech on a broad perspective on the ECB’s financial coverage agenda on the Home of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium.

• OECD Employment Outlook report

• Germany: Q1 inhabitants knowledge

• UK: July Monetary Stability Report from the Financial institution of England.

• US: Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the June 17-18 assembly.

• Outcomes: Galliford Strive July buying and selling replace, Health club Group HY pre-close buying and selling replace, Looking buying and selling assertion, Jet2 FY, Porsche HY pre-close name, Younger & Co’s Brewery AGM buying and selling assertion, Zigup FY

Thursday

• Sarah Breeden, deputy governor, monetary stability, on the Financial institution of England speaks on the Annual Chapman-Barrigan lecture collection on “Weathering the storm: stability in a altering local weather”

• JPMorgan Chase chief govt Jamie Dimon speaks and takes half in a Q&A at an occasion at Eire’s overseas ministry

• London’s Court docket of Enchantment to listen to the newest spherical of Pfizer and Moderna’s authorized battle over their rival Covid-19 vaccines, after the Excessive Court docket dominated in 2024 that Pfizer and its German accomplice BioNTech had infringed one in every of Moderna’s patents and was liable to pay damages in relation to gross sales after March 2022

• Germany: June Client worth index (CPI) and harmonised index of client costs (HICP) inflation charge knowledge

• South Korea: rate of interest determination

• UK: RICS residential housing market survey. Individually, the UK authorities publishes common credit score statistics on two-child coverage for April, with further knowledge on profit cap, incapacity advantages and demographics

• Outcomes: ConAgra Manufacturers This fall, DCC AGM buying and selling assertion, Delta Air Traces Q2, Dr Martens AGM buying and selling replace, Quick Retailing Q3, Gerresheimer Q2, Grafton buying and selling replace, Liontrust Asset Administration Q1 buying and selling replace, PageGroup Q2 buying and selling replace, Seven & i Holdings Q1, Severn Trent Q1 buying and selling replace and AGM, Tata Consultancy Providers Q1, Trifast FY and AGM, Vistry buying and selling replace

Friday

• Walgreens Boots Alliance holds a particular assembly of shareholders to vote on the proposed acquisition of the corporate by Sycamore Companions. If authorized, the deal is predicted to shut within the fourth quarter of 2025

• IEA Oil Market Report

• Canada: June labour drive survey

• France: June CPI inflation charge knowledge

• UK: June GDP estimate

• Outcomes: DNB Financial institution Q2, Heathrow June visitors figures, Norwegian Air Q2, Ryohin Keikaku Q3

World occasions

Lastly, here’s a rundown of different occasions and milestones this week.

Monday

• Brazil: conclusion of the Brics Leaders’ Summit 2025 on the Museum of Fashionable Artwork in Rio, with China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin notable by their absence from among the many management of the 11 member states

• France: Paris Vogue Week Haute Couture Womenswear Fall/Winter 2025/2026 begins within the French capital

• Spain: the primary bull run of the annual Competition of San Fermin begins at 8am, when the animals are launched on a half-mile closed course to Pamplona’s bullfighting stadium, the Plaza de Toros

• UK: twentieth anniversary of the 7/7 assaults in London, when 4 homegrown suicide bombers hit three Tube trains and a bus, killing 52 others and injuring a whole bunch extra

• US: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets for talks with President Donald Trump, primarily concerning the battle in Gaza and discovering a peace settlement

Tuesday

• Malaysia: Asean overseas ministers assembly and associated conferences begins in Kuala Lumpur, persevering with till Friday

• UK: King Charles III and Queen Camilla host French President Emmanuel Macron and his spouse Brigitte Macron at Windsor Fortress initially of a three-day state go to. Macron is because of handle parliament in Westminster earlier than eating with the royal household

• UK: a two-day judicial assessment introduced by Save Wimbledon Park is because of start at London’s Excessive Court docket, difficult the All England Tennis Membership’s plans to construct 38 additional courts and an 8,000 seater stadium on Wimbledon Park

Wednesday

• Taiwan: annual “Han Kuang” workouts, to simulate defending the island towards Chinese language assaults, start, persevering with till July 18

• UK: Contaminated Blood Inquiry resulting from publish an extra report on compensation, with inquiry chair Brian Langstaff giving a brief assertion. It follows two days of hearings in Could concerning the timeliness and adequacy of the UK authorities’s response to compensation

• US: Deadline set by President Donald Trump for the introduction of his numerous “reciprocal” tariffs, together with 50 per cent on EU imports, which he threatened to impose earlier than pausing their introduction in early April

Thursday

• Belgium: Ursula von der Leyen is to face a European parliament no-confidence vote in newest problem to the European Fee president, the primary time since 2014 that the top of the fee has confronted such a transfer. Nevertheless, the vote will primarily be symbolic as she is predicted to outlive

• Italy: Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni hosts a two-day Ukraine restoration convention in Rome

• UK: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron lead a UK-France Summit, anticipated to debate migrants and small boats coverage

• UK: the Royal Institute of British Architects pronounces the winners of this 12 months’s RIBA Nationwide Awards for architectural excellence

Friday

• Singapore: World Aquatics Championships start, persevering with till August 3

• UK: Normal Synod, the Church of England’s legislative physique, begins a five-day assembly on the College of York’s campus, with a gap handle by the Archbishop of York Stephen Cottrell

Saturday

Sunday

• Japan: Chinreisha Competition (Spirit-Pacifying Shrine) on the Yasukuni Shrine devoted to all of those that died in wars or incidents since 1853 and who can’t be enshrined within the Fundamental sanctuary, in different phrases enemies of Imperial Japan

• UK: fortieth anniversary of Dwell Help live shows

• US: first anniversary of the taking pictures of Donald Trump at a rally forward of final 12 months’s presidential election